22 02 2009

Now that my Oscars contest has closed, I’m posting my own predictions, as well as the consensus of my readers. We’re actually in agreement on everything except the first one.

Best Actor
Rob says: Sean Penn
Rob’s readers say: Mickey Rourke
This one’s tough. I know Mickey Rourke is the favorite to win, and I would like to think he’ll pull it off, but I have a feeling this one might go to Sean Penn. I think it might be, in part, Hollywood’s response to California’s passing of Proposition 8.

Best Supporting Actor
Rob says: Heath Ledger
Rob’s readers say: Heath Ledger
It would be so unbelievably unthinkable for Heath Ledger NOT to win. Only one of my readers dared to break from the pack and pick Philip Seymour Hoffman. While I think the performances of the other nominees in this category are win-worthy, Hollywood will give this to Ledger as its way of saying goodbye, celebrating his life, and mourning all that could have been.

Best Actress
Rob says: Kate Winslet
Rob’s readers say: Kate Winslet
I am really tempted to go with Meryl Streep in this category. If Winslet weren’t nominated, Streep would win for sure. Honestly, Winslet is nominated for the wrong movie, but I think Hollywood is so intent on seeing her finally win that this will be the time. Meryl’s kind of done herself in by acknowledging too often that she gets nominated but never wins, and I don’t think a majority will break from the pack.

Best Supporting Actress
Rob says: Penelope Cruz
Rob’s readers say: Penelope Cruz
I’d like to see Viola Davis take this, but I think Hollywood is betting that her best performances are yet to come. Penelope Cruz is a pretty solid bet.

Best Animated Feature
Rob says: WALL-E
Rob’s readers say: WALL-E
I thought this was going to be unanimous, but one last-minute entry chose Kung Fu Panda. I don’t think there’s a chance in the world that WALL-E would NOT win this category. Critics agreed that, animated or not, this was simply a great movie. This might be the only category it wins, but it will definitely win this one.

Best Art Direction
Rob says: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Rob’s readers say: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
I’m tempted to go with Revolutionary Road. Enough people feel like it should have been nominated in different categories, which could potentially net it a win here, but Benjamin Button has a large following. People know it will lose out to Slumdog Millionaire in the big categories, so I think they’ll want to make sure it takes this category.

Best Cinematography
Rob says: Slumdog Millionaire
Rob’s readers say: Slumdog Millionaire
I find it very unlikely that any of the other contenders can beat out Slumdog here. If anyone does, it will be Benjamin Button.

Best Costume Design
Rob says: The Duchess
Rob’s readers say: The Duchess
It’s the only nominee with costumes that are jaw-droppingly good. Benjamin Button will win Makeup and Visual Effects, so it doesn’t need to win here. This one goes to The Duchess.

Best Directing
Rob says: Slumdog Millionaire
Rob’s readers say: Slumdog Millionaire
Director and picture usually go hand-in-hand. Slumdog will take Best Picture, and I find it extremely likely that Danny Boyle will win this as well. There’s a slim chance the category could go to Milk, but I think that the wins Milk will net in Screenplay (and potentially Actor) will be the extent of its success.

Best Documentary, Feature
Rob says: Man on Wire
Rob’s readers say: Man on Wire
It’s had the biggest Oscar campaign and the most pre-Oscars discussion. I think much of the Academy votes along with what they think the rest of the Academy will vote in this category. Consequently, Man on Wire will likely win.

Best Documentary, Short
Rob says:
The Witness – From the Balcony of Room 306
Rob’s readers say: The Witness – From the Balcony of Room 306
I haven’t seen any of the films in this category, so I’m taking the easy road here and going with my readers on this one.

Best Film Editing
Rob says:
Slumdog Millionaire
Rob’s readers say: Slumdog Millionaire
I think this one will be part of Slumdog’s big sweep. If it doesn’t, it will go to The Dark Knight.

Best Foreign Language Film
Rob says:
Waltz with Bashir
Rob’s readers say: Waltz with Bashir
Without knowing much about the films in this category, either, I’d say this is a pretty safe bet as well.

Best Makeup
Rob says:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Rob’s readers say: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Academy wants to do something with Benjamin Button, as evidenced by its large number of nominations, but since it’s not going to win the biggest categories, it has to win the ones most relevant to the film itself. I think that giving this movie the award for Best Makeup is somewhat misguided, as I think Benjamin Button is more of an accomplishment in Visual Effects, but I don’t think many of the voters quite know whether it’s more a makeup thing or a CGI thing, so they’ll give it both.

Best Original Score
Rob says:
Slumdog Millionaire
Rob’s readers say: Slumdog Millionaire
So many of the rave reviews about this movie center around its music, both the songs and the score. I think it will take this category fairly easily.

Best Original Song
Rob says:
“Jai Ho” from Slumdog Millionaire
Rob’s readers say: “Jai Ho” from Slumdog Millionaire
Not only do I think this song will win, I’m kind of excited for it to win. It’s a different song than any other that’s been nominated in this category before. Every so often, something comes along to change the perception of what an Oscar-worthy song will be. The only way it might not win is if its votes get canceled out by the votes for O Saya, also from Slumdog Millionaire, in which case Down to Earth from WALL-E would win by default. But I think the Academy wants Slumdog to win this category, and there’s enough of a consensus that Jai Ho is the song to take it.

Best Picture
Rob says:
Slumdog Millionaire
Rob’s readers say: Slumdog Millionaire
If you’d have asked me when the nominations were first announced, I’d have gone with Milk. But there has been so much buzz about Slumdog, and everyone loves an underdog. Everyone’s pulling for Slumdog to take Best Picture, and I think it will happen.

Best Short Film, Animated
Rob says:
Rob’s readers say: Presto

Embarrassingly, I’ve seen none of the films in either of the Short Film categories. I’ll go with my readers on these.

Best Short Film, Live Action
Rob says:
Spielzeugland (Toyland)
Rob’s readers say: Spielzeugland (Toyland)
See comments in previous category.

Best Sound Editing
Rob says:
The Dark Knight
Rob’s readers say: The Dark Knight
There’s a chance this could go to WALL-E, but I think Hollywood feels like it needs to acknowledge The Dark Knight as a movie apart from just Heath Ledger’s performance. I think it will take both this and the Sound Mixing categories.

Best Sound Mixing
Rob says:
The Dark Knight
Rob’s readers say: The Dark Knight
See comments on the previous category.

Best Visual Effects
Rob says:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Rob’s readers say: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
This is the category where Benjamin Button most deserves a win. It really represents a significant accomplishments in the visual effects field and will win the Oscar accordingly.

Best Screenplay, Adapted
Rob says:
Slumdog Millionaire
Rob’s readers say: Slumdog Millionaire
There are some excellent nominees in this category, and I think the Oscar could very deservedly go to The Reader or Doubt. But I think that, despite Slumdog’s likelihood to win big, there are more than a few people afraid that it could lose to Milk for Best Picture, so they want to make sure that Slumdog wins this category.

Best Screenplay, Original
Rob says:
Rob’s readers say: Milk
If I could give this award personally, it would go to the witty and brilliant In Bruges. But since Slumdog Millionaire can’t be nominated in this category, it will undoubtedly go to Milk.




2 responses

22 02 2009

I was the late entry that picked Kung Fu Panda as best animated. You’ll laugh when I tell you why …. of all the films nominated tonight in every category, the only one I’ve seen is Wall-E, and we enjoyed it very much. So, I figured the one film I saw and liked couldn’t possibly win, that’s why I picked the Panda. For the record, I’m glad Wall-E won. 🙂

23 02 2009
micah d.l.

dang! y’all nailed almost every category!
one of my favorite moments of the night was watching Jack Black’s reaction to WALL-E winning (and not Kung Fu Panda). I think, as a general rule, this year’s Oscars were very classy and on par with what The Academy seemed to want to achieve…it was awesome!

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